{"id":5624,"date":"2022-01-08T20:10:08","date_gmt":"2022-01-08T12:10:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.madewill.com\/?p=5624"},"modified":"2022-01-20T18:20:16","modified_gmt":"2022-01-20T10:20:16","slug":"antifragile","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.madewill.com\/thinking-model\/antifragile.html","title":{"rendered":"\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\uff1a\u5b66\u4f1a\u4ece\u6ce2\u52a8\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e2d\u83b7\u76ca"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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\u90a3\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u8981\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u5b89\u68c0\u5462\uff1f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u91cc\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5047\u5b9a\u4e3a\u771f\uff08\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u6050\u6016\u5206\u5b50\uff09\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u5c06\u4f1a\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b89\u68c0\u7684\u6210\u672c\u5f88\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f53\u4e00\u6b21\u4e8b\u60c5\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u5931\u53bb\u7684\u6bd4\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u4fbf\u5904\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u4e14\u662f\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u3002<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\uff0c\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u98ce\u9669\u975e\u5e38\u666e\u904d\u3002\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u201c\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u201d\u4f1a\u7ed9\u6211\u4eec\u5e26\u6765\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u540c\u6613\u788e\u7684\u5305\u88f9\u538c\u6076\u6df7\u4e71\u548c\u98a0\u7c38\uff0c\u5b83\u603b\u662f\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u3002\u4e5f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u7684\u8106\u5f31\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u9047\u5230\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e8b\uff0c\u5b83\u90fd\u4f1a\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u6709\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u201c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u201d\u7684\u5305\u88f9\u5728\u6447\u6643\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u53cd\u800c\u4f1a\u6bd4\u5931\u53bb\u7684\u66f4\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u201c\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u5931\u201d\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u53ea\u4f1a\u662f\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\u7684\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u5177\u5907\u4e86\u201c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u201d\u3002  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e09\u3001\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e2d\u53d7\u76ca\u7684\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u4e8b\u7269<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

1.\u5f53\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u65e0\u6cd5\u5f71\u54cd\u6211\u4eec\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u5177\u5907\u4e86\u201c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u65af\u591a\u845b\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u829d\u8bfa\uff0c\u5728\u906d\u9047\u6d77\u96be\u540e\uff0c\u4fbf\u79f0\u81ea\u5df1\u5341\u5206\u5e78\u8fd0\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u73b0\u5728\u6beb\u65e0\u7275\u6302\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5168\u8eab\u5fc3\u5730\u7814\u7a76\u54f2\u5b66\u4e86\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u906d\u9047\u4e0d\u5e78\u4e8b\u4ef6\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u4f5c\u54c1\u91cc\u53cd\u590d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u77ed\u8bed\u2014\u2014\u201c\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u5931\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u6b64\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u65af\u591a\u845b\u5b66\u6d3e\u5177\u6709\u7eaf\u7cb9\u7684\u5f3a\u97e7\u6027\uff1a\u65e0\u8bba\u5916\u90e8\u73af\u5883\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u90fd\u5177\u6709\u514d\u75ab\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0d\u56e0\u547d\u8fd0\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u800c\u53d8\u5f97\u8106\u5f31\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u5f3a\u97e7\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7531\u6b64\u53cd\u63a8\u5230\u6211\u4eec\u8eab\u4e0a,\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u6452\u5f03\u8d2a\u5ff5\u5e76\u4e14\u8db3\u591f\u5f3a\u5927\u65f6\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u65e0\u6cd5\u5bb3\u6211\u4eec\u5931\u53bb\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u4fbf\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u6211\u4eec\u4e86\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e2d\u53d7\u76ca<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u51b2\u51fb\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4f24\u5bb3\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u51b2\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u4ee5\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u52a0\u5267\uff08\u76f4\u5230\u8fbe\u5230\u67d0\u4e00\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e3e\u4f8b1<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u5757\u91cd\u8fbe10kg\u7684\u77f3\u5934\uff0c\u5b83\u9020\u6210\u7684\u4f24\u5bb3\u8981\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e00\u57575kg\u7684\u77f3\u5934\u6240\u9020\u6210\u4f24\u5bb3\u7684\u4e24\u500d\uff0c\u66f4\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e00\u57571\u78c5\u91cd\u7684\u77f3\u5934\u6240\u9020\u6210\u4f24\u5bb3\u76845\u500d\u3002 \u9053\u7406\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u753b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5750\u6807\uff0c\u7eb5\u8f74\u8868\u793a\u4f24\u5bb3\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u6a2a\u8f74\u8868\u793a\u77f3\u5757\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u6839\u7ebf\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u7ebf\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e3e\u4f8b2<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u6b21\u559d7\u74f6\u8461\u8404\u9152\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5728\u5269\u4e0b\u76846\u5929\u91cc\u53ea\u559d\u7eaf\u51c0\u6c34\u4e0e\u67e0\u6aac\u6c41\u7684\u5371\u5bb3\uff0c\u6bd4\u6bcf\u5929\u559d\u4e00\u74f6\u8461\u8404\u9152\u3001\u8fde\u559d7\u5929\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u3002 \u6bcf\u676f\u9152\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u90fd\u8981\u6bd4\u524d\u4e00\u676f\u9152\u7684\u4f24\u5bb3\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4f60\u7684\u751f\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f1a\u5bf9\u9152\u7cbe\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u8fd9\u6837\u5462\uff1f \u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u7269\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6e29\u548c\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u7d2f\u79ef\u6548\u5e94\u5f80\u5f80\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7b49\u91cf\u7684\u5355\u4e00\u4e25\u91cd\u51b2\u51fb\u6240\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5355\u4e00\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5bf9\u8106\u5f31\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u4f24\u5bb3\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6e29\u548c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9020\u6210\u7684\u4f24\u5bb3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bba\u70b9\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u601d\u8003\u4e00\u4e0b\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f88\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u4e5f\u6839\u690d\u4e8e\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u4e0e\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u7269\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u9650\u5ea6\u5185\uff0c\u51b2\u51fb\u8d8a\u5f3a\uff0c\u76ca\u5904\u8d8a\u5927\uff08\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\uff0c\u4f24\u5bb3\u4e5f\u66f4\u5c0f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5047\u8bbe\u4f60\u4ece\u201c\u4f60\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u5f00\u59cb\u3002 \u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5f53\u53d8\u91cfx\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u6a2a\u8f74\u4e0a\u5411\u53f3\u79fb\u52a8\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6536\u76ca\uff08\u7eb5\u8f74\uff09\u5c06\u6bd4\u53d8\u91cfx\u5411\u5de6\u79fb\u52a8\uff0c\u5373\u51cf\u5c11\u76f8\u540c\u5e45\u5ea6\u65f6\u6240\u53d7\u7684\u635f\u5931\u66f4\u5927\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\"
\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027 <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u8be5\u56fe\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u6b63\u9762\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\uff08\u5de6\u56fe\uff09\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u51f8\u6027\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u800c\u8d1f\u9762\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\uff08\u53f3\u56fe\uff09\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u56db\u6027\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5f53\u53d8\u91cf\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u4ea7\u751f\u540c\u7b49\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u504f\u65f6\uff0c\u51f8\u6027\u6548\u5e94\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u4f1a\u5927\u4e8e\u5176\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u51f9\u6027\u6548\u5e94\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u5219\u4f1a\u5c0f\u4e8e\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4ece\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u6bd4\u4f60\u5931\u53bb\u7684\u8981\u591a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u4f1a\u559c\u6b22\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u3002  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56db\u3001\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u4e0e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5171\u821e\uff1f<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

1.\u8fc8\u5411\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5148\u51cf\u5c11\u4e0d\u5229\u56e0\u7d20<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u964d\u4f4e\u81ea\u5df1\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u8d1f\u9762\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u201d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u8ba9\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u987a\u5176\u81ea\u7136\u5730\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u4eab\u7528\u5496\u5561\u548c\u751c\u70b9\u540e\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u559d\u897f\u7ea2\u67ff\u6c64\u7684\u611f\u53d7\uff0c\u4e0e\u7528\u76f8\u53cd\u987a\u5e8f\u8fdb\u9910\u7684\u611f\u53d7\u662f\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56<\/a>\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u5b83\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u76ca\u5904\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5c31\u50cf\u5546\u4eba\u4eec\u5bb9\u6613\u628a\u4e3b\u8981\u4efb\u52a1\u653e\u5728\u4ea7\u751f\u5229\u6da6\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u751f\u5b58\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5546\u4eba\u5ffd\u7565\u4e00\u4e2a\u81f4\u547d\u70b9\uff0c\u8f83\u4e4b\u4e8e\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u4f18\u5148\u7ea7\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u6bd4\u83b7\u5229\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u8981\u5148\u8003\u8651\u5230\u751f\u5b58\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6240\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fc8\u5411\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u662f\u51cf\u5c11\u4e0d\u5229\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u589e\u52a0\u6709\u5229\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.\u5229\u7528\u6760\u94c3\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u9a6f\u5316\u201c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f57\u9a6c\u4f5c\u5bb6\u666e\u5e03\u91cc\u4e9a\u65af\u30fb\u52d2\u65af\u66fe\u5199\u8fc7:\u201c\u4f60\u65e0\u6cd5\u4ed3\u4fc3\u53c8\u7a33\u59a5\u5730\u505a\u597d\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u201d\u5f53\u4e8b\u7269\u5177\u6709\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u7834\u788e\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u6539\u5584\u6216\u63d0\u9ad8\u5b83\u201c\u6548\u7387\u201d\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u53d8\u5f97\u65e0\u5173\u7d27\u8981\u3002\u9664\u975e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5148\u964d\u4f4e\u5b83\u7834\u788e\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u603b\u7ed3<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\u8292\u683c\u5b66\u9662\"
\u8292\u683c\u5b66\u9662<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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