{"id":4918,"date":"2020-07-19T21:27:41","date_gmt":"2020-07-19T13:27:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.madewill.com\/?p=4918"},"modified":"2022-02-14T20:00:07","modified_gmt":"2022-02-14T12:00:07","slug":"the-ambiguities-of-experience","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.madewill.com\/thinking-model\/the-ambiguities-of-experience.html","title":{"rendered":"\u63a2\u7d22\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u6167\uff1a\u9a6c\u5947\u300a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u7586\u754c\u300b\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u542f\u793a"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\u667a\u6167\u5728\u4e8e\u9002\u5e94\u73af\u5883\u4e0e\u4f18\u96c5\u5730\u8be0\u91ca\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u5e76\u6301\u7eed\u6709\u6548\u5730\u5173\u6ce8\u91cd\u8981\u4e4b\u4e8b\uff01            <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right\" style=\"font-size:16px\">\u2014\u2014 \u8a79\u59c6\u65af \u9a6c\u5947<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p 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style=\"font-size:17px\">\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u88ab\u4eba\u4eec\u89c6\u4e3a\u6700\u597d\u7684\u8001\u5e08\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u53c8\u963b\u788d\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002\u9a6c\u5947\u4ee5\u6e0a\u535a\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u878d\u5408\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u667a\u6167\u6b63\u9762\u56de\u7b54<strong>\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u6167<\/strong>\u96be\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u5168\u4e66\u6839\u636e\u9a6c\u59472008\u5e74\u5728\u5eb7\u7eb3\u5c14\u5927\u5b66\u6f14\u8bb2\u6539\u7f16\u800c\u6765\uff0c\u6574\u672c\u4e66\u4e0d\u5230\u4e00\u767e\u9875\uff0c\u4f46\u53e5\u53e5\u6709\u51fa\u5904\uff0c\u6bcf\u9875\u6709\u6d1e\u89c1\uff0c\u53ef\u8c13\u5b57\u5b57\u73e0\u7391\u3002\u4e0e\u5176\u8bf4\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u884c\u4e3a\u5b66\u7684\u4e66\uff0c<strong>\u4e0d\u5982\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u8001\u4eba\uff0c\u5230\u4e86\u665a\u5e74\uff0c\u56de\u987e\u4e00\u751f\uff0c\u4e34\u884c\u524d\uff0c\u7ed9\u540e\u751f\u5c0f\u8f88\u9001\u4e0a\u7684\u73cd\u8d35\u793c\u7269\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"630\" height=\"355\" src=\"https:\/\/www.madewill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/\u9a6c\u5947.jpg\" alt=\"\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u9a6c\u5947(James G.March)\" class=\"wp-image-4920\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.madewill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/\u9a6c\u5947.jpg 630w, https:\/\/www.madewill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/\u9a6c\u5947-200x113.jpg 200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><figcaption><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.baidu.com\/link?url=lWi0a_TYwwm7m7YFajWChkhGia1G8axH_WheL-AEVgW1qdpnSoqTTI4PUiFjlXmG0rhjio4FJqH37cENdtBUU_&amp;wd=&amp;eqid=8fe9b964000100f4000000065f14459b\" target=\"_blank\"><em>\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u9a6c\u5947<\/em>(James G.March)<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u7531\u4e8e\u6f14\u8bb2\u4e3b\u9898\u6240\u9650\uff0c\u9a6c\u5947\u63a2\u8ba8\u7684\u662f<strong>\u7ec4\u7ec7\u667a\u6167<\/strong>\u4f55\u6765\uff1b\u4f46\u5728\u6b63\u5f0f\u884c\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u9a6c\u5947\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u6167\u4f55\u6765\uff0c\u5df2\u8bba\u8ff0\u900f\u5f7b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e00\u3001\u667a\u6167\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u667a\u6167\u4ece\u54ea\u91cc\u6765\uff1f<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u8fd9\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u7ae0\u56de\u7b54\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5728\u4e66\u91cc\uff0c\u9a6c\u5947\u6ca1\u6709\u7ea0\u7f20\u4e8e\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e09\u5927\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u51b2\u7a81\uff1b\u7ec4\u7ec7\u9002\u5e94\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u591a\u4e2a\u5d4c\u5957\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u540c\u6b65\u4ea4\u4e92\u9002\u5e94\uff1b\u591a\u4e2a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u540c\u6b65\u8c03\u6574\u3001\u5171\u540c\u6f14\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u800c\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u8ffd\u95ee<strong>\uff1a\u667a\u6167\u4f55\u6765\uff1f\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u667a\u6167\u4e0e\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u667a\u6167\u5bfb\u6c42\u4e2d\u8d77\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff1f\u6216\u8005\u5e94\u8be5\u8d77\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f5c\u7528\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u667a\u6167\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u9a6c\u5947\u5199\u9053\uff1a<strong>\u667a\u6167\u5728\u4e8e\u9002\u5e94\u73af\u5883\u4e0e\u4f18\u96c5\u5730\u8be0\u91ca\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u524d\u8005\u5982\u7f57\u9a6c\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\u4f1a\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u51e0\u6240\u8001\u724c\u540d\u724c\u5927\u5b66\uff0c\u9002\u5e94\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u5f97\u4ee5\u5b58\u6d3b\u6570\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u3002\u540e\u8005\u5982\u4eba\u7c7b\u6e34\u671b\u7406\u89e3\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u9a6c\u5947\u5f15\u7528\u5df4\u9ece\u77ff\u9662\u524d\u4efb\u6821\u957f Raymond Fischesser \u628a\u667a\u6167\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a<strong>\u300c\u6709\u6548\u5730\u5173\u6ce8\u91cd\u8981\u4e4b\u4e8b\u300d<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u667a\u6167\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u53cd\u601d\u3001\u7406\u89e3\u5e76\u6b23\u8d4f\u751f\u6d3b\u800c\u4f1f\u5927\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u56e0\u4e3a\u638c\u63a7\u751f\u6d3b\u800c\u4f1f\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color\" style=\"font-size:17px\">\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b<a href=\"https:\/\/www.madewill.com\/art-of-thinking\/seeking-wisdom-from-darwin-to-munger.html\">\u5bfb\u6c42\u667a\u6167<\/a>\u7684\u8def\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u4e09\u7c7b\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u4fd7\u5730\u5c06\u9a6c\u5947\u6574\u7406\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u6d41\u6d3e\u6bd4\u55bb\u6210\u4eba\u3002\u8fd9\u4e09\u7c7b\u4eba\u5206\u522b\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\"><strong>1\u3001\u7b1b\u5361\u5c14\u4fe1\u5f92<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u8fd9\u4e00\u7c7b\u4eba\u5d07\u5c1a\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u64c5\u957f\u5206\u6790\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u559c\u6b22\u4e00\u677f\u4e00\u773c\u5730\u6f14\u7ece\uff0c\u8ffd\u6c42\u7b80\u7ec3\u4f46\u63a8\u5e7f\u6027\u5f3a\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u89c2\u662f\uff0c<strong>\u5386\u53f2\u662f\u8e52\u8dda\u524d\u8fdb\u7684\uff0c\u667a\u6167\u4f34\u968f\u5386\u53f2\u53d1\u5c55\u800c\u589e\u957f<\/strong>\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u81ea\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u3001\u516c\u5171\u884c\u653f\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\"><strong>2\u3001\u8bb2\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u4eba<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u8fd9\u4e00\u7c7b\u4eba\u5f3a\u8c03\u8bed\u8a00\u3001\u6697\u55bb\u3001\u9610\u91ca\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u559c\u6b22\u5c06\u81ea\u5df1\u653e\u5728\u6743\u5a01\u4e0e\u6210\u89c4\u5b9a\u89c1\u5bf9\u9762\uff0c\u634d\u536b\u5f31\u52bf\u7fa4\u4f53\u5c0a\u4e25\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5178\u578b\u4ee3\u8868\u662f\u5f17\u6d1b\u4f0a\u5fb7\u3001\u798f\u67ef\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u7ecf\u5e38\u4ee5\u504f\u6982\u5168\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e5f\u559c\u6b22\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u72b6\u51b5\u5228\u6839\u95ee\u5e95\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c24\u5176\u559c\u6b22\u96d5\u7422\u8bed\u8a00\u7684\u7ec6\u5fae\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u4ece\u4e2d\u6316\u6398\u51fa\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u89c2\u662f\uff0c<strong>\u667a\u6167\u4e0e\u5386\u53f2\u76f8\u4e92\u6784\u5efa\uff0c\u5bf9\u667a\u6167\u589e\u957f\u5374\u907f\u800c\u4e0d\u8c08\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u81ea\u6587\u5b66\u3001\u8bc4\u8bba\u3001\u53f2\u5b66\u3001\u4eba\u7c7b\u5b66\u3001\u8bed\u8a00\u5b66\u3001\u6cd5\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u5b97\u6559\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\"><strong>3\u3001\u9002\u5e94\u8005<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color\" style=\"font-size:17px\">\u8fd9\u4e00\u7c7b\u4eba\u5f3a\u8c03\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u4eba\u5982\u4f55\u9002\u5e94\u73af\u5883\u3001\u5206\u6790\u590d\u6742\u751f\u6001\u5708\u7406\u89e3\u667a\u6167\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u4eba\u3001\u52a8\u7269\u3001\u6280\u672f\u3001\u5404\u7c7b\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u90fd\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u9002\u5e94\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u89c2\u662f\uff0c<strong>\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5386\u53f2\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/www.madewill.com\/thinking-model\/path-dependence.html\">\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56<\/a>\u6027\u3001\u5177\u5907\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u667a\u6167\u53ef\u4ee5\u975e\u968f\u673a\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\"><strong>\u6cbf\u7740\u8fd9\u4e09\u7c7b\u4eba\u7684\u667a\u6167\u89c2\u3001\u5386\u53f2\u89c2\u3001\u80cc\u540e\u66f4\u5e95\u5c42\u7684\u62bd\u8c61\u601d\u60f3<\/strong>\uff0c\u9a6c\u5947\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u4e09\u7ae0\u9610\u91ca\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u8def\u5f84\u5bfb\u627e\u667a\u6167\u7684\u5173\u952e\u3001\u53ef\u80fd\u9047\u5230\u7684\u95e8\u69db\u3001\u4e0d\u8db3\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u5728\u5168\u4e66\u7b2c\u4e94\u7ae0\u4e88\u4ee5\u603b\u7ed3\u3002\u4e0e\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u5bf9\u5404\u4e2a\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u80a4\u6d45\u4e86\u89e3\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u9a6c\u5947\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e09\u7c7b\u4eba\u4e86\u5982\u6307\u638c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u81ea\u8eab\u8d21\u732e\u5353\u8d8a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u5728\u7b1b\u5361\u5c14\u4fe1\u5f92\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e66\u4e2d\u4e00\u7b14\u5e26\u8fc7\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u51e0\u4e4e\u80af\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u5783\u573e\u6876\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u51b3\u7b56\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color\" style=\"font-size:17px\">\u4e0d\u592a\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u8bfb\u8005\u6240\u77e5\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9a6c\u5947\u65e9\u5e74\u5c31\u6210\u4e3a\u5927\u5e08\uff0c1958\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u5361\u5185\u57fa\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4efb\u804c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e0e\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/www.madewill.com\/interdisciplinary\/interdisciplinary-learning-2.html\">\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1<\/a>\u5929\u624d\uff0c\u56fe\u7075\u5956\u4e0e\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u53cc\u5f97\u4e3b\u897f\u8499\u5408\u5199\u7684\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u300b\u6210\u4e3a\u7ecf\u5178\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">1963\u5e74\uff0c\u9a6c\u5947\u4e0e\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u897f\u5c14\u7279\u5408\u8457\u300a\u4f01\u4e1a\u884c\u4e3a\u7406\u8bba\u300b\uff08A Behavioral Theory of the Firm\uff09\uff0c\u518d\u6b21\u6210\u5c31\u7ecf\u5178\u30021994\u5e74\uff0c\u9a6c\u5947\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u51b3\u7b56\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u300b\u7b2c\u4e00\u7ae0\u5373<strong>\u300c\u6709\u9650\u7406\u6027\u300d<\/strong>\uff0c\u8be6\u7ec6\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u4ed6\u4e0e\u897f\u8499\u5960\u57fa\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u300c\u6709\u9650\u7406\u6027\u300d\u6d41\u6d3e\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u4eca\u65e5\u884c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u4f46\u4e0e\u897f\u8499\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u662f\uff0c<strong>\u9a6c\u5947\u66f4\u4f4e\u8c03\u4e0e\u66f4\u6ce8\u91cd\u5ba1\u7f8e<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u5728\u8bb2\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u4eba\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4ed6\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u4e5d\u672c\u8bd7\u96c6\uff0c\u62e5\u6709\u5bf9\u4eba\u6587\u9886\u57df\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u53d1\u8a00\u6743\u3002\u5728\u9002\u5e94\u8005\u4e0a\uff0c\u9a6c\u5947\u6df1\u53d7\u8fdb\u5316\u8bba\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u8fbe\u5c14\u6587\u4e3b\u4e49\u8d44\u6df1\u62e5\u62a4\u8005\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u777f\u667a\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u5c55\u73b0\u4e86\u5bf9\u751f\u6d3b\u4e0e\u4f17\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e8c\u3001\u5982\u4f55\u590d\u5236\u6210\u529f\uff1f<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u8fd9\u662f\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u56de\u7b54\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u9a6c\u5947\u53d1\u660e\u4e86\u4e00\u5bf9\u8bcd\u6c47\u6765\u5f62\u5bb9\u4eba\u7c7b\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u5148\u5929\u7279\u5f81\uff1a<strong>\u4f4e\u667a\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u9ad8\u667a\u89e3\u91ca<\/strong>\u3002\u9a6c\u5947\u5c06\u4eba\u7c7b\u4ece\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e2d\u83b7\u53d6\u667a\u6167\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u533a\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u79cd\uff0c<strong>\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u4f4e\u667a\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u5728\u4e0d\u6c42\u7406\u89e3\u56e0\u679c\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u590d\u5236\u4e0e\u6210\u529f\u76f8\u8fde\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u4f4d\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5458\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u8def\u8fb9\u5927\u5988\u70e7\u997c\u5356\u5f97\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u8ddf\u98ce\u53bb\u5356\u70e7\u997c\u3002\u5927\u5988\u5356\u70e7\u997c\u591a\u653e\u4e2a\u9e21\u86cb\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u7231\u4e70\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ddf\u7740\u591a\u653e\u4e00\u4e2a\u9e21\u86cb\u3002\u53ef\u60dc\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5458\u6ca1\u6709\u770b\u5230\u5927\u5988\u6709\u4e2a\u6f02\u4eae\u7684\u5973\u513f\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u88ab\u9a6c\u5947\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u300c\u4f4e\u667a\u5b66\u4e60\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\"><strong>\u53e6\u4e00\u7c7b\u662f\u9ad8\u667a\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u7406\u89e3\u56e0\u679c\u7ed3\u6784\u5e76\u7528\u5176\u6307\u5bfc\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color\" style=\"font-size:17px\">\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u8292\u683c\u901a\u8fc7\u7efc\u5408\u5bf9\u5386\u53f2\u4eba\u7269\u3001\u516c\u53f8\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5404\u7c7b\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u4e0e\u6570\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u603b\u7ed3\u51fa<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.madewill.com\/principles-of-psychology\/psychology-of-miscarriage-of-justice-2.html\">\u4eba\u7c7b\u8bef\u5224\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66<\/a><\/strong>\u4e0e<strong>\u6295\u8d44\u6e05\u5355<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u529b\u56fe\u7406\u89e3\u56e0\u679c\u7ed3\u6784\u2014\u2014\u4eba\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u5931\u8d25\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u7528\u5176\u6307\u5bfc\u4eca\u540e\u6295\u8d44\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u88ab\u9a6c\u5947\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a<strong>\u300c\u9ad8\u667a\u5b66\u4e60\u300d<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\"><strong>\u4f4e\u667a\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u9ad8\u667a\u5b66\u4e60\u5e76\u65e0\u4f18\u52a3\u4e4b\u5206<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u53ea\u662f\u524d\u8005\u5728\u52a8\u7269\u4e2d\u8f83\u4e3a\u5e38\u89c1\uff0c\u5bb9\u6613\u5bfc\u81f4\u5404\u7c7b\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u884c\u4e3a\uff1b\u540e\u8005\u53ea\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e2d\u5e38\u89c1\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u501f\u52a9\u7b26\u53f7\u8bed\u8a00\u3002\u9a6c\u5947\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u91cd\u70b9\u5256\u6790\u4e86<strong>\u300c\u4f4e\u667a\u5b66\u4e60\u300d<\/strong>\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u7ae0\uff0c\u91cd\u70b9\u5206\u6790\u4e86<strong>\u4e24\u79cd\u6700\u5177\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u7684\u300c\u9ad8\u667a\u5b66\u4e60\u300d\uff1a\u6545\u4e8b\u4e0e\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u5982\u4f55\u590d\u5236\u6210\u529f\uff1f\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u300c\u4f4e\u667a\u5b66\u4e60\u300d\u6709\u4e09\u7c7b\u673a\u5236\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>1\u3001\u8bd5\u9519<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u4eb2\u81ea\u6478\u7d22\u3001\u4e0d\u65ad\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u590d\u5236\u4e0e\u6210\u529f\u76f8\u8fde\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u56de\u907f\u4e0e\u5931\u8d25\u76f8\u8fde\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u4e24\u7c7b\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u529f\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u8bd5\u8bef\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6ce8\u610f\u4e8b\u9879\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u4e00\u7c7b\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u8001\u864e\u673a\u8fd9\u7c7b\u5982\u4f55\u5bfb\u627e\u6700\u4f73\u89e3\u9898\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6700\u4f73\u7b56\u7565\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u4e00\u7c7b\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u6559\u80b2\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u8ff7\u5bab\u5f3a\u5316\u5b66\u4e60\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7814\u7a76\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7406\u89e3\u7b80\u5355\u9009\u62e9\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5b66\u4e60\u8005\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u6700\u4f73\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>2\u3001\u6a21\u4eff\u89c2\u5bdf\u5176\u4ed6\u5b66\u4e60\u8005\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u5176\u4ed6\u5b66\u4e60\u8005\u91c7\u53d6\u4ec0\u4e48\u884c\u52a8\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u90a3\u6211\u5c31\u91c7\u53d6\u4ec0\u4e48\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u9a6c\u5947\u7684\u9605\u8bfb\u91cf\uff0c\u5230\u4e86\u4ee4\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u7f6e\u4fe1\u7684\u5730\u6b65\u3002\u5728\u6a21\u4eff\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bb5\u91cc\uff0c\u9a6c\u5947\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6284\u88ad\u7ec4\u7ec7\u884c\u4e3a\u5b66\u7c97\u964b\u4e0e\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c<strong>\u800c\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u8df3\u5230\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u4f20\u64ad\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\u3002\u6210\u529f\u7684\u4eba\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e0e\u4ed6\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u4eba\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:17px\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u601d\u60f3\u4e5f\u770b\u4f5c\u75c5\u6bd2\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u72b6\u6001\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4f9b\u5e94\u75c5\u6bd2\u3001\u63a5\u53d7\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u4eba\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u3001\u300c\u75be\u75c5\u300d\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u4e0e\u6574\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0<strong>\u300c\u8bc6\u9608\u6548\u5e94\u300d<\/strong>\uff08 threshold effect \uff09\uff0c\u4f20\u64ad\u591a\u534a\u4f1a\u6b62\u4e8e\u8d8b\u540c\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6700\u4f18\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>3\u3001\u5929\u62e9<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p 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